The Weekly Take: Stablecoin Supply Went Flat for a Year. The $2 Trillion Call Moved Two Years. Count the Turnover, Not the Float.

Total stablecoin supply crossed $300 billion on 3 October 2025. A year later it is about $309 billion. That is growth of about 3% in twelve months, after 46.8% in the first nine months of 2025. On 14 October Standard Chartered kept its $2 trillion stablecoin forecast but moved the date from 2028 to 2030. Between 2025 and 2026, the bank says, stablecoin velocity doubled. The float stalled. The flow did not. The forecast is about the float.

Jason Jones, Editor in Chief · 16 October 2026 · 9 min read

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On 9 October this column argued that federal crypto rulemaking should be counted by stage, not by headline. On 11 September it counted the GENIUS Act’s rulemakings and found nothing had moved in three weeks. This week the subject is the market those rules are written to govern: payment stablecoins, which come under the GENIUS Act on 18 January 2027, 94 days from today. The rules are close to arriving. The growth they were written for has paused.

Here are the four numbers to hold in your head.

• $309 billion. Total stablecoin supply now, per Standard Chartered.¹ Supply first passed $300 billion on 3 October 2025.² Twelve months, about 3%.
• 46.8%. Supply growth in 2025 up to that 3 October crossing, per DefiLlama data. That implies roughly $204 billion at the start of 2025.²
• 2028 → 2030. The year Standard Chartered expects stablecoins to reach $2 trillion. The target is unchanged. The date moved two years.¹
• 15 → 30. Average monthly stablecoin velocity, 2025 against 2026 to date, as Standard Chartered measures it. Each dollar of supply changed hands about twice as often.¹

The float went flat

Standard Chartered’s report, written by Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, puts total supply in a range of $300 billion to $320 billion for the past twelve months.¹ Set that against the year before. In the nine months to 3 October 2025, supply rose 46.8%, from roughly $204 billion to $300 billion.² In the twelve months since, it added about $9 billion.

The two largest issuers account for most of the market, so their own filings show where the flat line comes from.

• Tether (USDT): about $184.6 billion in circulation at the end of June 2026, up about $446 million from the end of March.³ DefiLlama data cited this week put it at $183.85 billion.⁴ Flat for two quarters.
• Circle (USDC): $77.0 billion at the end of March 2026⁵, $73.3 billion at the end of June⁶, and $72.77 billion in the DefiLlama data cited this week.⁴ Down 5.5% from the end of March.

Together the two come to about $256.6 billion, roughly 83% of the $309 billion total. USDT is holding. USDC has shrunk. Circle’s year-over-year figures still look like growth, up 28% at the end of March and 19% at the end of June, because the comparison quarters fell before the stall began.⁵⁶ The year-over-year rate is falling, and the quarter-over-quarter number is negative.

For an issuer, float is the business. Circle’s Q2 reserve income was $668 million, up 5% year over year, against average circulation up 25%, because its reserve return rate fell 66 basis points.⁶ Lower rates on a flat float squeeze an issuer from both sides.

The flow did not

Standard Chartered’s activity numbers point the other way. Monthly onchain stablecoin transfer value averaged just under $10 trillion in 2026, up from $4 trillion in 2025, and reached a record $19 trillion in May.¹ Average monthly velocity, transfer value divided by supply, rose from about 15 in 2025 to about 30 in 2026.

The split by issuer is wide. USDT velocity stayed near 7 times a month. USDC velocity rose from about 45 to about 80.¹ Kendrick attributes the gap to use: USDT mainly as a dollar savings instrument in emerging markets, USDC for payments, financial transactions and early AI-agent payments.

Circle’s own volume figures can be checked against the bank’s. Circle reported USDC onchain transaction volume of $21.5 trillion in Q1 2026 and $14.8 trillion in Q2.⁵⁶ Divide each quarter’s monthly average by quarter-end circulation and you get about 93 turns a month in Q1 and about 67 in Q2. Those numbers bracket the bank’s “about 80.” They also show something the annual average hides: USDC volume fell 31% from Q1 to Q2, in the same quarter the bank’s all-stablecoin series hit its May record. The flow is up on the year. It is not rising in a straight line, and the series do not all move together.

Why velocity is a problem for a supply forecast

A $2 trillion forecast is a forecast of float: dollars held as stablecoins at a point in time. Payment activity creates demand for float only to the extent that people need balances to make the payments. If each dollar turns over twice as often, the same payment volume needs half the balances.

Standard Chartered said this itself in March. Its 31 March 2026 note kept the end-2028 target “intact” but said the forecast had assumed stable velocity. Kendrick wrote that the bank would “watch stablecoin velocity more closely going forward, as we think it is a key input.”⁷ Six and a half months later, velocity had doubled on the bank’s own measure, and the date moved.

The bank’s stated reason is different. Kendrick ties the supply stall to weak crypto market activity, calls it cyclical rather than structural, and notes that earlier flat or falling periods were followed by renewed growth once crypto markets recovered.¹ That may be right. The two explanations are not exclusive, and twelve months of data cannot separate them. But they predict different things. If the cause is cyclical, supply resumes growing when crypto prices do. If the cause is velocity, payment volume can keep rising while supply stays flat, because the market is getting more efficient with the dollars it already has.

The arithmetic of the move is large. From $309 billion today, reaching $2 trillion by the end of 2028 would take supply growth of about 132% a year. Reaching it by the end of 2030 takes about 56% a year. (Coverage of the report gives only the year 2030; we use year-end, the convention of the bank’s earlier end-2028 call.) A year ago, from $300 billion, the end-2028 target required about 80% a year. Over the past twelve months the market delivered about 3%. Moving the date two years more than halves the required annual rate. It does not change the size of the multiple: about 6.5 times today’s supply.

The rules arrive in 94 days

The GENIUS Act was signed on 18 July 2025. It takes effect on the earlier of 18 January 2027, eighteen months after enactment, or 120 days after the primary federal regulators issue final rules.⁸ The agencies missed the statute’s one-year rulemaking deadline of 18 July 2026, having published proposals but no final rules.⁸ Our 11 September count noted that 20 September 2026 was the last day a final rule could issue and still have its 120-day clock beat the backstop. That date has passed. We have found no final implementing rule from the OCC, Federal Reserve, FDIC or NCUA issued by then, and as of 1 October the OCC was still targeting November for its own.⁹ On that record, the effective date is 18 January 2027.

Three rule actions matter most for who issues the next dollar of supply.

• The $10 billion line. Treasury’s interim final rule, published 30 September 2026 and effective on publication, sets the procedure for certifying state regimes as “substantially similar” to the federal one. Issuers with $10 billion or less outstanding can choose a qualifying state regime. Issuers above it must move to the federal framework within 360 days unless they get a waiver. Tether and Circle are both well above the line.⁹
• Who counts as issuing in the U.S. Treasury’s proposed rule of 18 August 2026 defines when issuance occurs “in the United States” and proposes a safe harbor for non-U.S. issuers that do not target U.S. persons. Comments close on 19 October, three days from today.¹⁰
• The OCC’s final rule. The OCC has committed to finalizing its implementing rule in November 2026.⁹ Circle has held an OCC charter since December 2025.⁹

Kendrick names GENIUS as the main risk to the forecast, and also as a possible source of new supply. Other countries adopting similar rules could bring more bank-backed and multi-issuer stablecoins into competition, and he expects corporate transactional use in developed markets to rise in 2027. In his words, “It is the DM transactions/TradFi replacement sector which we see as the most contested going forward.”¹

Read against the supply data, that is the open question for 2027. The segment where new regulated issuers would compete is payments, which is the high-velocity segment. A new bank-issued stablecoin that wins payment flow adds turnover quickly. Whether it adds much float depends on how long its users hold the balance.

What this does not show

Velocity figures depend on the definition, and the published ones do not agree. The March 2026 note was reported as putting average turnover at about six times a month.⁷ The October report was reported as putting 2026 at about 30.¹ Both come from the same bank, six and a half months apart. The gap is too large to be growth. It probably reflects different measures, for example adjusted against raw transfer value, but we have not seen either underlying report and cannot say which. Circle’s own figures imply 67 to 93 for USDC alone. We use the bank’s October numbers for the 2025-to-2026 comparison because they come from one series. We do not compare them with the March figure.

Transfer value is not payments. Onchain transfer value counts every transfer, including exchange-internal movements, trading and automated activity. A doubling in velocity says the same dollars moved more often. It does not say how much of that movement was commerce.

Supply totals differ by source. The $309 billion figure is Standard Chartered’s. The $300 billion crossing and the 46.8% growth rate are DefiLlama’s. The issuer figures come from Tether’s attestation and Circle’s earnings. These sources count slightly different sets of tokens at slightly different times, so the 3% one-year change is approximate.

Twelve months is a short window. The flat year could be a pause inside a longer growth trend, as Kendrick argues earlier flat periods were. We are not forecasting supply, and we are not saying the $2 trillion figure is wrong. We are showing what the bank’s own revision and its own velocity numbers imply about the path.

Forecasts are not ours, and none of this is investment advice. The $2 trillion figure is Standard Chartered’s. Nothing here is a view on any stablecoin issuer’s securities or any token’s price.

None of this is legal advice. The GENIUS Act dates and rule descriptions are taken from published rules and press coverage of them. Issuers should read the rules themselves.

What would change our mind

Supply breaking above $320 billion and holding. That is the top of the twelve-month range. If supply clears it alongside a recovery in crypto markets, the cyclical explanation gains ground over the velocity one. Watch the DefiLlama total monthly.

USDC circulation back above $77.0 billion. Circle’s Q3 2026 results, due 4 November,¹¹ will show whether the decline since March has reversed. USDC is the high-velocity token, so its float is the cleanest test of whether faster turnover is substituting for balances.

A consistent velocity series that falls while supply rises. If Standard Chartered or another source publishes velocity on one stated definition and it declines as supply grows, the velocity explanation weakens.

New regulated issuers adding float, not just flow, after 18 January 2027. Watch the OCC’s final rule in November and the first approvals under the federal framework. If bank-issued and multi-issuer stablecoins add tens of billions in supply in 2027, the $2 trillion path looks more reachable than the past twelve months suggest.

Where this leaves us

$309 billion in supply, about 3% above where it stood a year ago. 46.8% growth in the nine months before that. A $2 trillion forecast moved from 2028 to 2030, which cuts the growth it requires from about 132% a year to about 56%. Velocity doubled, on the forecaster’s own measure, after the forecaster said in March that velocity was a key input. And 94 days until the GENIUS Act takes effect.

The structure is this. Stablecoins are doing more work per dollar. The market is not holding more dollars. A forecast built on float has to account for turnover, and the regulatory framework arriving in January will decide which issuers compete for the payment flow that drives that turnover.

Count the turnover, not just the float.

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Sources

All figures pulled 15 October 2026 and stated as of that date. Total supply and velocity figures are Standard Chartered’s, as reported by The Block; we have not seen the underlying report. Historical supply figures are DefiLlama’s, as reported by Cointelegraph. Issuer figures are from Circle’s quarterly results and Tether’s Q2 2026 attestation as reported by Decrypt. GENIUS Act rule details are from the Federal Register and press coverage. Growth rates and velocity checks are CoinageReport’s arithmetic on those figures.

1. The Block, Yogita Khatri, “Standard Chartered pushes $2 trillion stablecoin market forecast to 2030 as supply growth stalls,” 14 October 2026, reporting a Standard Chartered report by Geoffrey Kendrick released 14 October 2026. $2 trillion forecast moved from 2028 to 2030; supply about $309 billion, in a $300–320 billion range over the past twelve months; monthly onchain transfer value averaging just under $10 trillion in 2026 against $4 trillion in 2025, record $19 trillion in May 2026; average monthly velocity about 30 in 2026 against 15 in 2025; USDT velocity near 7; USDC velocity about 80 against 45. Kendrick quoted: “It is the DM transactions/TradFi replacement sector which we see as the most contested going forward.” GENIUS Act cited as the main risk to the forecast. ↩
2. Cointelegraph, Helen Partzstaff, “Stablecoins break $300B market cap, post 47% growth year-to-date,” 3 October 2025, citing DefiLlama. Total stablecoin market capitalization surpassed $300 billion for the first time on 3 October 2025, up 46.8% year to date. ↩
3. Decrypt, “Tether Reports $1.5B Q2 Profit as USDT Supply Grows, Gold Holdings Rise,” 31 July 2026, reporting Tether’s Q2 2026 attestation. About $184.6 billion USDT in circulation at 30 June 2026, up about $446 million from the end of March; net operating profit about $1.5 billion. ↩
4. DefiLlama data as cited by AltcoinBuzz, “Standard Chartered Pushes Its $2 Trillion Stablecoin Call to 2030,” 15 October 2026: USDT $183.851 billion; USDC $72.769 billion. ↩
5. Circle Internet Group, “Circle Reports First Quarter 2026 Results,” 11 May 2026. USDC in circulation of $77.0 billion at quarter end, up 28%; USDC onchain transaction volume of $21.5 trillion in Q1 2026, up 263%. ↩
6. Circle Internet Group, “Circle Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results,” 5 August 2026. USDC in circulation of $73.3 billion at quarter end, up 19%; average USDC in circulation up 25%; USDC onchain transaction volume of $14.8 trillion, up 151%; reserve income $668 million, up 5%; reserve return rate down 66 basis points year over year. ↩
7. Decrypt, “Stablecoin market to hit $2 trillion in 2028 even as velocity doubles: Standard Chartered,” 31 March 2026. Velocity reported as doubled over two years to about six turns a month; forecast had assumed stable velocity. Kendrick quoted: “our $2 trillion market estimate for end of 2028 remains intact” and “we will watch stablecoin velocity more closely going forward, as we think it is a key input.” ↩
8. ForkLog, “U.S. Regulators Miss Deadline for Implementing GENIUS Act,” 19 July 2026. Rulemaking deadline of 18 July 2026 missed, with proposals but no final rules from the OCC, Federal Reserve, FDIC, NCUA and Treasury; Act takes effect on the earlier of 18 January 2027 or 120 days after final rules. GENIUS Act signed 18 July 2025. See also CoinageReport, “The Weekly Take: We Counted the GENIUS Act’s Rulemakings Again. In Three Weeks, Nothing Moved,” 11 September 2026, for the 20 September 2026 cutoff and the list of pending proposals. ↩
9. U.S. Department of the Treasury, interim final rule on Stablecoin Certification Review Committee procedures, Federal Register document 2026-19966, published and effective 30 September 2026, as reported by Yahoo Finance, “Treasury’s first GENIUS Act rule draws a $10 billion line through the stablecoin market,” 1 October 2026. Issuers above $10 billion outstanding must move to the federal framework within 360 days absent a waiver; Tether and Circle above the threshold; Circle OCC charter December 2025; OCC target of November 2026 for its final rule; comment period closes 30 November 2026. ↩
10. U.S. Department of the Treasury, “GENIUS Act Regulations on Payment Stablecoin Issuance, Offer, and Sale,” proposed rule, 91 FR 53368, 18 August 2026, docket TREAS-DO-2026-0496. Defines issuance “in the United States”; proposes a safe harbor for non-U.S. issuers not targeting U.S. persons; comments due 19 October 2026. ↩
11. Circle Internet Group, “Circle to Announce Q3 2026 Financial Results on November 4, 2026,” 7 October 2026. ↩

This article is not legal or investment advice. It describes published issuer results, a bank research forecast, market data and federal rules, with arithmetic shown. Comments are closed sitewide. Corrections to corrections@coinagereport.com.